As US President Donald Trump has been ramping up sanctions and threats against Iran over the past eight months, Tehran has been operating on the assumption that he would not dare risk an outright war, especially with an election approaching.
The drone strike that ended the life of General Qasem Soleimani, the strategy’s architect and chief enforcer, blew up that calculation, creating a stunning new dilemma for Iran’s leaders as they look for ways to retaliate – without the benefit of their master strategist.
That Iran will retaliate is not in question, analysts say. Not to do so would be a sign of weakness that could jeopardise the enormous influence Iran has gained in the region over the past four decades.
The targeted killing of Soleimani eroded the deterrent that Iran believed it had established with a campaign of attacks against shipping in the Persian Gulf and rocket strikes on bases in Iraq, said Kamel Wazne, a Beirut-based political analyst. From Iran’s point of view it is now imperative to restore that, he said.
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