Bashar al Assad
President of Syria

In recent weeks, as the Syrian regime prepared and launched a major military operation to regain control of southwest Syria, this area has become a significant issue in international and regional diplomacy. It was, among others, the focus of discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Jordanian King Abdullah in Amman (June 18), Jordanian and Russian foreign ministers in Moscow (July 4), Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow (July 12) and recent phone calls between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Finally, it made its way into the July 16 Helsinki summit between Putin and Trump.

In the last year and a half, the Syrian regime has regained control over nearly two thirds of the country, apart from the southwest and southeast, the province of Idlib adjacent to the Turkish border, and the north-east, which is under the control of the Kurdish-dominated SDF. Having won the battle in the eastern suburbs of Damascus (Eastern Ghouta, the Yarmouk refugee camp and other areas east of Damascus), the Syrian regime decided to focus on the south, up to the borders with Jordan and Israel. This area includes the provinces of Dara’a (with the city of Dara’a, considered the “capital” of the south); Quneitra, which borders the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights; and Suweida’ further to the east, which is home to a large Druze community. In recent years, Dara’a and Quneitra have been mostly controlled by rebel groups.

The regime’s assault in the south essentially put an end to the de-escalation agreement – established in the three southwest provinces in the summer of 2017 by a Russian-US-Jordanian agreement (and first announced by presidents Trump and Putin in July 2017). The agreement excluded the jihadi groups – ISIS, which controls the Yarmouk basin (on the border triangle between Syria, Jordan and Israel) and Hay’at Tahrir a-Sha’m (HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra).

The Syrian-Russian strategy and its implementation on the ground

The Syrian regime’s move towards the south was decided upon and implemented in close coordination with Russia. It incorporated and synchronised military moves, Russian diplomatic efforts vis-à-vis Israel, Jordan and the US, and Syrian regime negotiations with rebel groups and villages on the ground. The Assad regime first amassed troops in the area, sent warnings to rebels and started quiet negotiations with them about laying down their arms. Then, both Russia and Syria began airstrikes in the south followed by a Syrian ground offensive focused on the area of Dara’a – occasionally halting to give a chance to translating the military pressure to deals with the rebels. Simultaneously, Russia was conducting talks with both Jordan and Israel to make sure neither, especially Israel, opposed the Syrian offensive and would be undermining it in any way.

This strategy appears to have been by and large successful. At the time of publication, the Syrian regime has already taken over almost all of the province of Dara’a, including the city (where the uprising in Syria was sparked in 2011), the border area with Jordan and the Nassib Crossing, the main border crossing with Jordan. This constitutes a practical and symbolic victory shutting the door to potential support for the rebels from Jordan. The regime is now fighting to take over the province of Quneitra, adjacent to Israel’s border, and has already reconquered the strategic hilltop of Tel al-Harrah, some 10 kilometres from Israel’s border.

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