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Amb. Ran Yaakoby says farewell
In August, NZFOI held a farewell reception for Amb. Ran Yaakoby as he ends his extended tenure in New Zealand.
So much has happened on his watch. Here’s the recording of the reception.
Our latest newsletter is out!
Our latest newsletter is out.
We’ve been having email deliverabilty issues to Gmail, Hotmail and Xtra accountholders.
If you are affected, or you’d just like to read our newsletter, then you can download the newsletter from here.
Shalom.
Leighton Smith interview of Iran Expert Behnam Taleblu
In case you missed our briefing with Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu, here is an interview with Leighton Smith on NewsTalk ZB:
Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues. Behnam previously served as a research fellow and senior Iran analyst at FDD. Prior to his time at FDD, Behnam worked on non-proliferation issues at an arms control think-tank in Washington. Leveraging his subject-matter expertise and native Farsi skills, Behnam has closely tracked a wide range of Iran-related topics including: nuclear non-proliferation, ballistic missiles, sanctions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the foreign and security policy of the Islamic Republic, and internal Iranian politics. Frequently called upon to brief journalists, congressional staff, and other Washington-audiences, Behnam has also testified before the U.S. Congress and Canadian Parliament.
His analysis has been quoted in The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Fox News, The Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse, among others. Additionally, he has contributed to or co-authored articles for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Fox News, The Hill, War on the Rocks, The National Interest, and U.S. News & World Report. Behnam has appeared on a variety of broadcast programs, including BBC News, Fox News, CBS Interactive, C-SPAN, and Defense News. Behnam earned his MA in International Relations from The University of Chicago, and his BA in International Affairs and Middle East Studies from The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.
A deal will embolden more October 7 attacks
[NZFOI: Published in the Christchurch Press, June 13]
Dear Sir/Madam
John Minto (11 June 2024) states that loss of life could have been avoided if a negotiated deal had been closed.
A negotiated deal would embolden Hamas and others to repeat October 7 type attacks. Indeed, Hamas has promised exactly that.
Hamas puts civilians in harm’s way by holding hostages among them.
There are two tangata whenua who cherish the same land. Both were offered statehood. One thought let’s give co-existence a shot and accepted. The other thought, no, and gambled on a winner takes all, fight to the death. They lost. People have been dying ever since.
Jews have lived continuously in the region for nearly 4,000 years. To brand Jews as colonialists is to rob an indigenous people of their right to return.
Misusing the term genocide to mean any mass killing, is attention seeking exaggeration and disrespects the victims of genuine genocides, the Armenians, the Tutsis and the Jews.
Hamas wanted war when they attacked on October 7, they got it. They wanted shahids (martyrs) for their propaganda war, they got that too. They wanted humanitarian aid to store in tunnels and sell. They got that too. They want to destroy Israel, they won’t get that.
Regards
Tony Kan
How do I make sense of the Israeli-Gaza War of 2023?
Background
There are two indigenous peoples who cherish the same land, Jews and Arabs.
Both were offered statehood. The Jews said we’ll give coexistence a shot and accepted. The Arabs said, no way, we want a winner takes all, fight to the death. And there has been death ever since.
October 7 sparks a war
On October 7, Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel that had been years in the planning.
For years, they had been gathering intelligence on Israel’s border and kibbutz security arrangements through Gazans employed by Israelis as agricultural and domestic workers.
By utilizing the latest use of drone warfare techniques learnt from the Russo-Ukrainian War, approximately 3,000 militants largely neutralized Israel’s frontline security and attacked communities up to 15 km within Israel.
The attacks were marked by indiscriminate, mutilations, rape, executions, abductions and acts of spectacular cruelty. Extensive video recordings were taken by the attackers, showing considerable glee and joy as they carried out their crimes against humanity. Up to 1,210 murders were carried out and up to 250 were taken hostage.
Israel’s government faced with the its duty to:
- Protect its vulnerable citizens
- Punish wrongdoing
- Prevent further wrongdoing
Had no choice except to declare war to ensure that a further attack would not occur, to deter other organizations from repeating similar attacks and to reassure its citizenry that they could be safe.
The Israeli-Gaza War 2023
This is primarily a propaganda war with civilian fatalities as its foundation
Its objectives are therefore to survive and take advantage of Western cultural repugnance toward fatalities among women and children and ignorance of what war involves to undermine world support for Israel.
To expedite this objective, Hamas infiltrates mainstream media outlets with “independent” journalist contractors, controls what can be released to media and actively seeks images, and video footage of wounded, dying or dead children.
Media coverage of this conflict is disproportionately represented by such images and video footage when compared to other conflicts currently underway in Ukraine, Myanmar, Sudan, Nigeria and Yemen.
Casualty figures are produced by the Gaza Ministry of Health which itself is controlled by Hamas, yet Western media nearly always publishes these figures without cautionary statements, as if they can be accepted at face value.
Hamas holds strongly to a religious tradition of martyrdom and sees civilian fatalities as a necessary price for victory.
Victim’s bodies and hostages are used as trophies to demonstrate to the Arab world their continuing resistance and to undermine Israeli prestige.
Their propaganda messaging has evolved as the war progresses:
- “War on children”
- “IDF is committing genocide”
- “Israel is withholding humanitarian aid to cause famine”
- “Israel will cause a humanitarian disaster if it attacks Rafah”
To the Arabic speaking world the messaging is quite different:
- “We are the brave underdog resistance fighters against the hated Jews”
- “See the Israelis are beatable and we are superior.”
- “We will never give up the good fight entrusted to us by Allah to destroy the Jews, even if it means sacrificing our people as martyrs“
In reality,
- Civilian fatality rates even based on Hamas’ figures are spectacularly low compared to other urban wars.
- Markets have sprung up to sell food and other humanitarian aid hijacked by Hamas and criminal gangs.
- Food and other supplies have become so abundant that Hamas has had to announce price drops.
Tunnels, human shields and using UN facilities and hospitals are Hamas’ prime tactics
For many years, Hamas has built up to 700kms of tunnels beneath Gaza leaving very few city blocks without tunnels underneath them. Each block contains multiple exits.
Hamas’ tactics include
- Using civilians as human shields
- Using civilian structures such as homes, schools, hospitals and UN facilities for battlefield cover
- Using civilian structures homes, schools, hospitals and UN facilities for operational centers, munitions storage, and food storage.
Under the Geneva Convention doing so, relieves these structures from their immunity from violence, and thus the IDF has entered schools, hospitals and UN facilities whenever they have evidence that Hamas has operated from them. The Western public unaware of this dynamic have voiced outrage.
Unfortunately, in war, and in particular urban warfare, civilian fatalities are inevitable. In all conflicts, experts have said up to 10% of civilians will refuse to evacuate.
In 2022, the UN said in recent history, for every combatant killed in urban warfare, 9 civilians die. Israel has taken more steps than any other modern military force to minimize civilian deaths.
They do this by forewarning the civilian population before beginning operations in a particular neighbourhood. This allows civilians to evacuate but it also means Hamas evacuates too as human shields are not effective unless they are in close proximity.
This minimizes civilian deaths but also has the effect of prolonging the conflict.
How will it end?
Even after Hamas has been defeated, its leadership in exile, and all hope of any remaining hostages extinguished; the hatred, prejudice and intolerance is so deeply ingrained among Palestinians and Arabs that it will take at least a whole generation of re-education to dislodge it.
Evidence of how deeply ingrained these beliefs are include:
- The mass celebrations in the 48 hours after October 7 were widespread, yet they only ended once news that Israel was massing several hundred thousand troops to enter Gaza, and the prospect of widespread devastation became apparent.
- Children’s drama and education teach antisemitism
- Reports of Palestinians who have realized that Jews are not demons after all, Hamas’ authoritarianism is the real enemy of the Palestinian people.
There are likely to be several phases before a stable solution can be fashioned. The war is an opportunity for the civilian population to be freed from Hamas’ tyranny:
- A short-term period of Israeli administration while law and order is restored. The more guerilla attacks from the tunnels etc there are, the longer they will likely stay.
- A period of UN administration while Gazan civilian society re-organizes itself and democratic elections can be held.
- The re-organization must include an independent police, an independent militia and an independent civil service. To establish these institutions, the period of UN administration could be lengthy.
Why did October 7 happen?
The Problem: Hamas’ waning support
Hamas has expressed a number of motives for planning and executing the October 7 massacre.
Revitalize Arab support for Hamas: For a number of years their Arab allies had been losing their patience with Palestinian intransigence after repeatedly rejecting offers of statehood multiple times, Over the years, Israel was becoming an economic force in the Middle East and Iran was expanding its regional influence, building a bridge of vassal states toward the Mediterranean. Improving relations with Israel would help these Arab states counter Iran’s influence and provide an opportunity for economic betterment through trade with Israel. The Abrahamic Accords gave tangible evidence that such talk had evolved into action.
Revitalize Western support for Hamas: The Russo-Ukrainian War had not only diverted the West’s attention but also diverted much of their appetite for financially supporting the Palestinians as the need to re-arm grew to meet the Russian threat.
Revitalize domestic support Hamas: Hamas like all authoritarian regimes maintains its control through intimidation and repression. Despite receiving considerable foreign aid, it diverts most of it to the prosecution of its winner-takes all, fight to the death war and into its leader’s private bank accounts. Hamas’ cruelty and deteriorating living standards meant growing public dissastisfaction.
The Solution: To start a war and survive.
To rebuild support it must win hearts and minds.
To win hearts and minds, it must build an effective propaganda campaign from a one-off attack on a scale that makes it impossible for Israel not to ignore it.
In developing an attack to solve these problems, Hamas does not need to win a conventional military victory. A conventional military victory is beyond its reach anyway.
All it needs to do is to survive to win.
Just in case the killings were not sufficient, Hamas instructed its people to record their acts and post them widely on social media.
The extensive 500-700 km of tunnels and its human shields tactic would ensure its survival.
Unlike Hamas’ attack which was over in a day or two, the tunnels would ensure Israel’s campaign would be comparatively long and arduous.
This dynamic leans into the nature of the news cycle where audiences have relatively short memories and great sympathy for underdogs and the downtrodden.
The wokes would then pick up the underdog story and amplify it.
The enduring nature of any Israeli campaign and the inevitable civilian casualties that urban warfare brings would produce more than enough nightly images of wounded, dying and dead children.
These nightly images would serve to spark, fuel and reinforce the horror and anger that Western audiences will inevitably feel over Israel’s perceived cruelty.
Teams of Hamas operatives were charged with taking photographs of wounded, dying and dead children and making them available to “accredited” Gazan photo-journalists contracted to mainstream media outlets such as CNN, BBC and Aljazeera.
Indeed, the greatest risk Hamas faced was the chance that not enough victims would be killed on October 7 to incite a war.
Hamas’ propaganda campaign looks to build the following key idea:
That Israel is callously killing civilians out of homicidal revenge on a scale that minimizes the October 7 attack.
Key ideas to support this base idea includes:
“Israel is fighting a war on children”
“Israel is callously victimizing innocent Gazan civilians through horrendous collateral damage and withholding humanitarian aid causing famine.”
“Israel has stolen our land.”
“All Jews are white settler colonialists.”
Thousands of Western citizens are being convinced that Hamas’ messaging is credible.
That credibility is built on public trust in Western media.
Unfortunately, Western mainstream media often do not inform their audiences that much of the information they present has not been independently verified and quote information supplied by the Gaza Ministry of Health without question.
So far (May 2024), Hamas’ propaganda campaign has been remarkably successful. Thousands have marched in support of Gaza’s “innocent” citizens, and in so doing fall into Hamas’ trap.
In so doing, they knowingly and unknowingly side with and enable perpetrators of tyranny, mutilation, rape, torture and massacres of innocent civilians to prolong their religious mission to destroy all Jews.
Bibliography
Hamas Says Goal of October 7 Attack on Israel Was to ‘Overthrow’ Status Quo (businessinsider.com)
The October 7th Catastrophe. Why Did It Happen? | Hillel Schenker | The Blogs (timesofisrael.com)
‘Hamas gambled with our lives’: Gazans dare to speak out – CSMonitor.com
Protests against Hamas reemerge in the streets of Gaza, but will they persist? | The Times of Israel
Proportionality Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Means In Gaza (forbes.com)
How genocide is defined—and why it’s so difficult to prove (nationalgeographic.com)
How Hamas is winning the propaganda war against Israel (msn.com)
Conflicted Christians: How to approach the Israeli-Gaza War 2023
Here we give some ideas on how to reconcile some of the issues that conflict Christians regarding the Israeli-Gaza War of 2023:
1. How do we reconcile scriptures that command us to “love our enemies” and “turn the other cheek” with ideas of justice, self defense and war?
In Romans 12 and 13 we have clues to the answer to this question:
In Romans 12 it says:
“Be patient in tribulation” Romans 12:12
“Bless those who persecute you, bless and do not curse you” Romans 12:13
“Repay no one evil for evil” Romans 12:17
“If possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all” Romans 12:18
“Beloved, never avenge yourselves, but leave it to the wrath of God, for it is written, “vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.” To the contrary, “if your enemy is hungry, feed him; if he is thirsty, give him something to drink; for by so doing you will hea burning coals on his head.” Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.”
These exhortations are right and true at an individual level.
Paul then takes the conversation up to a whole new level when he discusses the role of our governing authorities in Romans 13:1-6:
“Let every person be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and those that exist have been instituted by God. Therefore whoever resists the authorities resists what God has appointed, and those who resist will incur judgment.
For rulers are not a terror to good conduct, but to bad. Would you have no fear of the one who is in authority? Then do what is good, and you will receive his approval, for he is God’s servant for your good. But if you do wrong, be afraid, for he does not bear the sword in vain. For he is the servant of God, an avenger who carries out God’s wrath on the wrongdoer.
Therefore one must be in subjection, not only to avoid God’s wrath but also for the sake of conscience. For because of this you also pay taxes, for the authorities are ministers of God, attending to this very thing.”
In these verses, governing authorities bear “the sword” to:
• Protect the vulnerable;
• Punish wrongdoing; and
• Prevent further wrongdoing.
This framework can help you to make sense of Hamas and the Israeli government’s objectives and conduct in this war.
That is, how is Hamas or the Israeli government, protecting the vulnerable, punishing wrongdoing and preventing further wrongdoing?
2. From a biblical perspective, should we take sides?
There are a number of perspectives that can inform the Christian on this question.
We are to do justice: Micah 6:8 requires Christians to “do justice.”
Justice is rightly symbolized by a statue of a woman who is:
• Blindfolded: This is to show that justice is impartial. Christians should not take sides.
• Holds a set of scales: Good justice should be based on good evidence. But not all evidence is good and must be weighted or tested. In war, the first casualty is the truth. Thus we should not jump to conclusions. Information must be tested. Where has it come from? Is it verified?
• Holds a sword: Justice must punish wrongdoers and deter wrongdoers from further wrongdoing.
Christians are connected to Israel, and the future of Israel and Jews are tied up with the future of Christians: There are many Christians who connect Israel to Christianity from a eschatological (or prophetic) perspective. Inevitably these discussions take enquirers into realms of much speculation and conjecture. For this reason, we won’t go into this topic at all.
Paul says:
* Christians should call Abraham their father (Romans 4:16-17).
* Christians are fellow heirs of the Promises (Eph 3:6). And those promises relate directly to the Land of Israel (Gen 15:7).
* Christians are adopted into the family of God (Gal 4:4-7).
* The gifts given to Israel are irrevocable (Romans 11:26ff).
* The dividing wall between those with a Jewish heritage and non-Jewish heritage is broken down, united as one (Eph 2:13ff)
* Christians are in some way grafted in to the Jewish metaphorical tree (Romans 11:11ff).
Taken together, there is sufficient there to suggest that the future of those with a Jewish heritage, Israel and Christians are in some cosmic way tied together.
Though connected, Christians must still “do justice.”
3. OK, I get that we have to do justice, so but it seems unfair and tragic that over 35,000 Gazans have died when only 1,200 died on the Israeli side of the border on October 7?
First, we must weigh the evidence. The 35,000 figure is produced by the Gazan Ministry of Health. This organization is governed by Hamas who administer Gaza at the end of a deadly weapon. The figure doesn’t different differentiate between civilians and combatants, nor natural casualties such as death from old age, car accidents or cancer.
Secondly, we have already said that the Israeli government has a duty to protect the vulnerable, punish wrongdoing and prevent further wrongdoing. It’s the third leg that requires a war. Hamas has already promised that however long it takes, it is committed to carrying out more October 7-like attacks. The Israel government therefore has no choice but to eliminate Hamas otherwise other groups such as Islamic Jihad will be emboldened to copy these attacks too.
The UN has carried out research on urban warfare in recent history throughout the world. They found that for every combatant killed, about 9 civilians are killed too.
The IDF estimate they have killed over 10,000 Hamas combatants. If this and the 35,000 figure is to be believed, then the ratio in Gaza is about 1 to 3.5. A figure much lower than the UN’s historical finding of 1 to 9.
How is it so low? Because Israel is giving away the element of surprise and warning where it will attack in advance so that civilians can evacuate. But of course, this allows Hamas to evacuate too as civilians are no good as human shields if they are not nearby. Unfortunately, that also means that the war will be prolonged.
4. Is Israel targeting children?
War is hell. And civilians, especially in an urban battlefield, are tragically put in harm’s way.
In the first four months of the war it seemed like the majority of news items had a dead, dying or wounded children on display.
Yet there were three other major conflicts under way in the world, in the Ukraine, Myanmar and Yemen. There are children dying in those conflicts too, but they aren’t being covered in the same way.
The pictures and video footage are coming from Gazan photographers and videographers. Many of whom are affiliated or even controlled by Hamas.
Hamas knows that they cannot win a conventional military war, so this is a war to win hearts and minds after the Ukraine sucked the oxygen away from the Palestinian cause and Arab nations were tired of funding them when they were repeatedly rejecting offers of statehood.
Therefore, they are intentionally putting children in front of cameras to undermine support for Israel, promote the underdog story and reinforce their victimhood.
You are being played.
6. But why has Israel destroyed so many civilian structures, and fought in schools, hospitals and UN facilities?
The London Underground has some 160 km of tunnels. The NYC subway has 420 km of tunnels. Gaza is the size of Ashburton. Yet there are 500-700 km of tunnels dug under there. If there are so many tunnels, what percentage of civilian blocks have no tunnels? Very few. Putting tunnels and exit holes in residential buildings turns them into legitimate military targets.
Returning hostages and soldiers have said the tunnels are often some fifty feet deep or more. This is why Israel has used very large bombs to destroy them.
Under international laws of war, if a civilian structure is used for military purposes, it loses its immunity. Hamas believes it is acceptable to fight from residential apartments, and use schools, UN facilities and hospitals for weapons storage and operational command posts.
There are several interviews of captured Hamas operatives who have explained that they do so because Israel by and large, does not bomb schools, hospitals and UN facilities.
6. Has Israel committed genocide?
Nearly all independent commentators have examined this issue and decided that in the context of the October 7 attacks, and Hamas’ public statements that they intend to repeat them, then the measures Israel has taken to prevent further attacks, is justified and not an attempt to commit genocide.
Most people misinterpreted the International Court of Justice’s ruling earlier in the year. In fact, they said that its plausible for South Africa to have the right to bring a case, and that the Gazans had a plausible right to be protected from genocide.
They did not rule that the claim of genocide was plausible.
7. Are the Palestinians victims of colonisation?
At its heart, two tangata whenua cherish the same land. Both were offered statehood. One was willing to give coexistence a shot, and accepted. The other rejected the offer, and opted for a winner takes all, fight to the death. And there has been dying ever since.
Settler colonisation is about foreigners displacing tangata whenua from their homeland, not tangata whenua returning to their homeland.
The land was never stolen from them as the Arabs never had manu whenua over the Land. They gave up their opportunity for much of the land when they gambled on winning their winner takes all, fight to the death, and lost.
The Nakba is the basis for their victimhood, and it is a lie, a falsehood.
Talking to Family, Friends and Loved ones about the Middle East Conflict
The other day, a mother shared with me how her daughter was shocked to think that her parents sided with Israel amidst “the genocidal massacre of Palestinian children.” They have since agreed that this topic is off-limits. This mother talked about how much anxiety it caused her, know that there was this rift be-tween them. How can we talk to our family, friends and loved ones? Here’s a guide to ensure that your conversations will be constructive.
- Find out how much they know first. Listen. We’ve noticed that most pro-Palestinian advocates, actually don’t know the facts behind the conflict. For example, when they chant “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!”, often they say the river is the Nile, or the Euphrates. The Sea is the Red Sea or even the Indian Ocean. From experience about two-thirds of people we encounter don’t know and they’ve just jumped on the bandwagon based on propaganda. Listen more talk less.
- Don’t get frustrated, angry, or upset.
If you catch yourself getting grumpy, then you’re starting to try to win them to your way of seeing things. Don’t. They will probably feel threatened or pressured and the discussion will end with neither of you any wiser. - Formulate your answer from what you find out.
In the above example, if you have the opportunity, show them a simple map and point out the sea and the river, and ask what’s in between. Then you can ask if they intended that Israel should be done away with. 2/3rds say no. Let me rethink this. - Look for common ground.
When I was confronted by an angry young man, he was quite disarmed when I compli-mented him for his passion for justice. The conversation stopped being combative immediately. - Don’t lecture.
Keep your answers short. In this day and age, where everything comes in short articles, attention spans can be really short. Think about how to phrase what you want to say effectively and efficiently. - Invite them to read widely and do their own investigations.
None of this happened under a rock. Finding articles, and books should be easy. But reading widely means reading material that look at both sides of the controversy. Otherwise they are just in an echo chamber. - Don’t try to convince them of your view. Don’t debate. Don’t try to win.
Let the facts speak for themselves. There are plenty of them. Don’t raise your voice. Don’t make their conclusions for them. Let them make up their own minds. - Be prepared: Read widely yourself
So much of the pro-Palestinian movement relies on re-writing history and jumping to conclusions without the facts. Do the opposite. Read wisely. Reflect. - Don’t wait until you know everything.
You don’t have to know everything. Each conversation is an opportunity to learn from the other person. Listen to how they support their argument. If you don’t know about it, you can go and research it and circle back. - Every time you have a conversation with someone, it is an opportunity to learn and refine your messaging.
That’s right. Don’t wait until you know everything and/or your messaging is perfect. Learning by doing is an essential way to improve.
—
NZFOI. This article was first published in the March 2024 issue of our newsletter.
Why are embassies supposed to be inviolable?
The Economist reviews the diplomatic immunity of Embassies following Ecuador’s raid on a Mexican Embassy to arrest someone who had been granted asylum.
In their discussion they say:
“There are exceptions to inviolability under international law, too. The Vienna Convention only refers to the responsibilities of the host state, but says nothing about a third-party attack. Also, under the laws of armed conflict, embassies lose their protections if they are used for military purposes. That may mean that the recent strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was legal; a spokesperson for the Israel Defence Forces called the annexe that was destroyed a “military building […] disguised as a civilian building”. Iran may try to claim, falsely, that the same is true of Israeli embassies, and that attacks on them would be similarly justified.”
Source: Why are embassies supposed to be inviolable? (economist.com)
